Suggested Video for June 12 2024
I will cover this in the Daily Video for Thursday but there is a video that I would highly recommend for viewing. The man who posts it is Bob Kendall. His channel is recommended on the SPX Investing Program YouTube channel page. He has some indicators that have intrigued me but they are quite expensive. I wanted to see them over time before deciding whether or not to purchase them.
When he does his analysis each day on the SPX Futures and NDX Futures, I seem to reach the same conclusions that he does, especially with the SPX. I just use other methods. Due to this, I have delayed considering whether to purchase these indicators or not. Instead, I follow him for confirmation. I do subscribe to his newsletter for $8 per month. Additionally, he covers what he finds in the videos found on his YouTube channel which is freely available.
For the last number of months, he has suggested that economic conditions are fine but that interest rates will gravitate back into a higher range. This breaks the downward trend of what they have been over the last 40 years. Actually, the last 40 years are an exception. Going back to a higher interest rate environment would actually be the historical norm. This has been confirmed by the analysis that I do in the weekly videos.
However, in his post for today, he has placed his indicators on the CPI and Fed Funds rate. This is something I have not seen him do before. What his indicators are predicting are that interest rates may go down to zero again over the next 6 months or so. That may sound great but think of the context. That likely means that something bad has happened that has impacted the economy and forced the Fed to lower rates quickly. This drastic change could be something similar to the actions taken during the COVID lockdowns. He has no idea what this “event” will be. I will admit I don’t either. There are always geopolitical events that we watch closely. Any one of them could cause this. Some kind of Black Swan event in today’s world is something that just might occur.
On the other hand, this prediction could be completely wrong. I tend to dismiss predictions by anybody, including my own. I simply follow the charts and do what they are saying. My motivation in sharing this is not to predict anything or build up unsubstantiated fear. My personal take is that this is something that we should be aware of. We should watch the charts as we already do, pay attention to events that can impact the markets, and then adjust our views on the SPX accordingly.
This is not a scare tactic. I don’t believe in doing that. It is an information gathering exercise to help us be prepared no matter what does, or doesn’t happen.
Here is a link to video.